Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Up0
Agree with all of Kevin’s points and your conclusions Fraser. Luke Laretive from Seneca financial ( financial planner and fund manager) was intereviewed on Equity Mates about this and has probably done a write up in his free weekly newsletter about what to look for. In summary,
– the fund manager should have a clear philosophy and objectives that align with yours– they should provide and extra benefit, Net of fees, that cannot be provided by an index fund/ETF. e.g. outperformance by >1%, Less volatility/drawdown during down periods, currency hedging. Access to alternative assets/ Private equity
I think one can spend time looking at different managed funds which cover small caps and emerging markets. Can start as a smaller satellite position and add if confident the fund manager communicates well and achieves objectives.
I’ve invest in a couple of active ETFs for the past 2 years that I’m happy with. Will post these later in the new community forum. 1 actively managed small cap LIC which I’m not so happy with
Up0Well, if you ask Google Gemini about RULs competitive advantage its suggests the following:
Competitive Advantage Analysis of RPMGlobal Holdings (RUL)
RPMGlobal (RUL) operates in the mining industry, specifically providing software and consulting services. Here’s an analysis of their potential competitive advantages:Possible Moats:
Industry Expertise & Reputation: RUL has been around for over 30 years and boasts a strong reputation in the mining industry. This experience translates to deep domain knowledge and established relationships, making them a trusted partner for mining companies.
Software Specialization: RUL’s software focuses on critical aspects of mine planning and operations. A strong and well-regarded software suite can create a switching cost if it becomes integrated into a client’s core workflows.
Network Effects (Limited): While not as strong as in other industries, there could be some network effects. For instance, if RUL’s software becomes the standard in a particular mining niche, it could attract more users due to the availability of industry-specific data and expertise within the platform.
Other Competitive Advantages:Global Presence: RUL operates in multiple countries, offering a wider reach and potential client base compared to regional competitors.
Focus on Innovation: Investment in R&D allows RUL to stay ahead of the curve with new technologies and solutions for the evolving mining landscape.
Client Service: A focus on exceptional client service can foster loyalty and reduce churn.
Limitations to Consider:Competition: The mining software and consulting space is competitive, with established players and new entrants vying for market share.
Standardization: Standardization of mining software could diminish the value proposition of a specialized suite.
Economic Downturns: The mining industry is cyclical, and RUL’s performance can be impacted by economic fluctuations.
Overall Assessment:RUL appears to have a combination of intangible assets and strategic advantages that contribute to a competitive position. Their industry expertise, software specialization, and global reach create a strong foundation. However, maintaining this edge requires continuous innovation, excellent client service, and navigating a competitive landscape.
Further Research:
Analyze recent news and industry reports to understand trends in mining software and consulting.
Compare RUL’s software offerings and client base with major competitors.
Investigate RUL’s R&D investment and recent innovations.
By considering these factors, you can get a more comprehensive picture of RUL’s long-term competitive advantage.And the PDF attached is Microsoft Copilots take on whether RUL has a Moat. Co-pilot actually linked some references from Morningstar and an old review published in Intelligent Investor by Gaurav Sodhi
Up0You could put 0.1% of your net wealth on Red @the Roulette table instead? (Def not Financial advice…..😀).
One of my goals is to drink less Narrativium, that way I don’t have to breath Hopium for years waiting for a share price recovery.A couple of Morningstar articles below. NB links are via my paid subs, but you should be able to search the titles vai their free website to read too.
https://premium.morningstar.com.au/news/article/245368/lessons-from-the-battery-metals-bust
https://premium.morningstar.com.au/news/article/247373/electric-vehicles-not-so-bullish-for-copper
Up0Hi Owen,
Just catching up after being quiet for past month. I was subscribed to receive email alerts for new forum posts, but seems like this was switched off at some stage. Not sure if this will happen again when you archive this forum….. might lose member engagement if we all get unsubscribed!
I’ve always found it hard to search old threads and cross post answers for new Qs, any way to improve this?
Up0Hi Peter,
Not a Hostplus member, but have you asked them if they can provide limited advice related to their product and your questions?
One of my superfunds actually provided reasonable telephone advice and the option to book a 1hr session for about $300 if required.My limited knowledge of Hostplus is that they performed quite well on the gov super compare chart for their standard offerings. I recall a podcast a while ago where it was noted that the Hostplus demographic was much younger than other superfunds. They tended to invest more in less liquid assists such as infrastructure, private equity as they knew that their members would not be transitioning to pension phase anytime soon. Not sure if this is still the case.
I think a benefit of sticking with an industry fund is their ability to access alternative asset classes.Up0Gday,
Its great that you’ll be offering Satellite options in the future.
Based on my own experience of multiple (too many!) holdings I think the Core and Satellite need to be visualised as separate portfolios as they could potentially have different goals and amounts of capital allocated. e.g. The Core might start with 100K, $2000 a month DCA top-up plan and have a growth target of CPI + %. The satellite might start with $ 20K and have a different goal e.g. income yield 6% – with Y generated being reinvested into satellite/ transferred to core/ withdrawn to spend on holidays! Or it might aim for growth rate > 10% with re-investment into satellite or transfer to Core.
Occasionally would need to look at Total Invested capital-in case Satellite does exceptionally well and consider if rebalancing needed or not.
I asked Pearler to offer additional portfolios sometime ago, but they don’t seem to have progressed on this. So agree with Vince P that a portfolio tracker such as Navexa or Sharesight is the best way where you can see the individual portfolios or group them all together.
Up0Hi again,
Quick squiz at the above tickers… all non-profitable exploration companies burning cash until they find the mother lode. Haven’t looked in detail at the WA1 IPO, but I’d be wary of the pump and dump, talk up by the broker who gets paid regardless of what the share price does.
Below is what I didbuy and what I think I’ll do next. NB These are short descriptors and I did do a bit more research. However, this could still be a useful insight for others into (flawed) frameworks and decision making…..
1/ FMG – iron ore price stayed up despite naysayers. Although China property market not doing so well, they bought iron ore to build alot of EVs! Juicy dividend yield. Twiggy is very charismatic and hydrogen narrative compelling. I’ve since sold as I released that FMG is single commodity only and has higher costs of production than other iron ore miners. I think Iron ore price will continue to decline in the future. Held for 2years with CG of 4.6% and DY of 13.6%. So a good outcome2/ IGO – diversified “future metals”. Paid reasonable dividend and good growth potential with the battery narrative. Joint ownership of Greenbushes lithium mine- one of the biggest in the world. Trialling downstream processing of ore to LiOH which is more valuable. This was not cost efficient so no profits from this. They bought another nickel miner, probably for too much and then Indonesia flooded market with cheap Nickel. So double whammy of Li and Ni prices dropping. I still hold…. Rode the share price up 21% gain…. And then all the way down – 24% loss because I wasn’t paying attention to commodity price news. Still holding…. Ni and Li prices seem to have bottomed out, possibly in a short term up trend now
3/ AIS – based on Cu supply shortage story. Outcome- similar to IGO price up, then down -60%.
Their cost of production is now higher than the Cu price and AIS losing money. Capital raise in Dec last year was undersubscribed. They have also taken out a loan so highly leveraged. I still hold with a glimmer of hope as WHSP are stakeholders and Rob Millner is a board director. Am trusting that SOL interest is an indicator that there is still some long term value growth somewhere in the future.4/NCM – taken over by NEM-one of the worlds largest gold miners.
Bought because I was bullish on gold. I already own a gold ETF which did its job of reducing volatility and diversifying as an uncorrelated asset class during Covid times and beyond. Thought Australia’s biggest miner would add to portfolio diversification and also paid a dividend. NCM price was volatile-Gold ETF much less so. The smaller gold miners e.g. RMS, WGX,NST have performed better as they have lower costs of production. NCM Price went up with takeover bid. However, NEM price has since gone down. Thesis has not played out so I will be selling and cut losses soon. Stick to holding the Gold ETF for uncorrelated diversification.Overall, I have drawn the conclusion that investing in individual smaller mining stocks does NOT suit a “buy and hold” strategy. Dividend returns can be lucrative, but being cyclical are not consistent. They are OK to trade over medium timeframe of months to years. One needs to buy off cyclical low for adequate margin of safety. You only know it was the low with the benefit of hindsight.
If you want to play in IPO/ exploration land- be ready to lose everything. Using technical analysis momentum trading strategies may mitigate losses and identify big winners. But this is an entire skills set and framework that needs to be learnt. Monitoring of share & commodity price momentum is required. Position sizing and having sell rules is critical. My purchases were all <1% of total portfolio…. now < 0.5% mainly because of capital loss incurred and no sell criteria 😂
A commodity ETF such as WIRE (global X) is more diversified and less volatile. Not sure if WIRE would outperform a passive index ETF though. COPX is the US listed version which has been around for longer and has more data for comparison.
The big mining companies you get in an index. The smaller ones can be more cost efficient, but its difficult to ascertain this without detailed industry knowledge or good analysis…. I like Gaurav Sodhi from Intelligent Investor & weekly (free) newsletter from Luke Laretive from Seneca financial. Carl Capolingua is a technical analysis trader who writes for Livewire. Morningstar also good for the bigger miners.
I find the sector interesting to read about given how dependant AU economy is on mining. However, the risk/ return/ effort spectrum required to invest in individual companies in this sector is less compelling to me these days.
A more interesting sector is the mining, (+ oil & gas) services sector, especially if providing specialised infotech type services to commodities providers. For interest, research RUL and DUG. While still subject to some cyclicality, they are businesses that provide mission critical services to the miners. They can often scale without increasing costs so have more long term growth potential.
Up1👋, dropped off the notification list for new posts so have been absent from forum.Am one who has bought a few mining stocks with mixed outcomes. With hindsight, I’d conclude my purchases were not based on any circle of competence. Bought based on some analyst opinions and general news about commodity supply/demand similar to what Geremy has posted…I.e anyone who reads the news will know the same info, so I have no advantage.
Reason – largely specualtion. No framework applied.Did well on some and terribly on others. I’ll share some of my thoughts
1/ Commodities are price takers. Share price depends on commodity price. This is cyclical. Except maybe for gold- price of the precious metal up, but most big miners share price down
2/ Most mining companies have no moat as there are multiple producers around the world. Costs of production and scale can be a source of narrow moat if lowest cost producer. New supply (cheaply produced) can come on suddenly e.g. Nickel from Indonesia3/ When supply restricted and price goes up, all companies pile in, bring on supply which brings price down. Mining explorers are often “penny stocks <$1.00 whose price can swing wildly and look like potential for multi-bagger returns. mining exploration is very different from profitable production . Like the small biotech start up with promising new drug but 10 years of trials to go +TGA/ FDA approval
We’ve had Lithium mania, Uranium go nuclear and now Copper looks shiny
4/ The copper supply shortage has been discussed for over 1 yr. yet the copper price remains low/flat. Highly reliant on demand from China
5/ Mining stocks can be rewarding for both
– dividends – FMG/BHP/RIO in the past but this depends in future commodity price and costs of production. I suspect this may have peaked
– share price growth- this is cyclical and momentum driven. Need to know when to get out.Up1Hi Impeach,
lots of great discussion here….. and no one “right” answer. Because as Evan Lucas would say, “ I am me & you are you”.
Paper trading can help, but it’s till not the same as real money. It can be helpful to read about what others did and how they felt, but you won’t know how you feel until you’re committed and experience true volatility.I agree that with others that the consensus is that 2024 is looking to be a better year for equities, but nothing is certain. A Bull market can actually create a false sense of security and make you feel smart, when you’re just enjoying the rising tide that lifts all boats.
Data suggests lump sump is best in the very long term – this even if the stock market crashes the day after you invest, provided you don’t panic and sell. Here’s an article from Of Dollars & Data that explains why.Things to think about to determine your comfort level: what loss do you think you could stomach? Consider % loss as well as total $ loss. (Mental accounting is a funny thing). Over what timeframe do you think you can sit with a loss that you consider significant? How long did it take you to save/ earn that lump sum? What’s the opportunity cost if you do lose money? Can you be disciplined to not check your returns too frequently, or at least not lose sleep over it if there are losses?
I have done both lump sum and DCA. The large sums arose from sale of investment properties. The lump sum investment was 10 years ago via a financial planner and I didn’t think too hard about it. The DCA was in 2021 because I had now learned enough to be worried. I invested my lump sum chunks such that brokerage was 0.5% of capital into different asset classes over a 3 month period.
Both approaches have produced longer term returns I am happy with. When I did the DCA, I checked my brokerage frequently and reacted emotionally to changes. I did not sell though ( and could still sleep).
I have DRP turned on for my core ETF/LIC holdings & add to them every 2-3 months rotating through the different asset classes to roughly maintain desired percentage.
I rarely check their performance – every quarter or twice a year when I have to confirm distributions in my portfolio tracker. Now I am mostly pleasantly surprised when I review annual tax documents and distributions received, even if there has been a paper capital loss…. It’s the total return that matters and as the amount invested grows , the distributions grow.I can actually work out how many days I could NOT work because of the distributions received. This makes one realise the benefit of being fully invested and one can visualise living off a passive income.
Up0How about a mix of fees for Live YouTube’s?
1/Free for RASK Invest members
2/cheap for RASK core e.g. $5-10 for live sign in… the sessions are at least worth a coffee/beer/wine
3/free to watch after the event?
(not sure of the logistics of organising this though and if costs to collect fees are worth it, coz it has to be worth your time….
if aired every 1-2 months, can core and invest members suggest or vote for topics?
Up0You’re welcome DG. And in case you missed it, here’s the Cross post from the currency hedging chat where someone else asked about more resources to read about Japanese economy and businesses
Up0G’day,
Nope, MER fees are not deductible. Like brokerage, it’s kind of like the cost of doing business.
I believe you can generally can deduct subscription services which assist with investing education and management of your portfolio though. My accountant has advised I can claim a tax deduction for sharesight/navexa fees, Morningstar and Intelligent Investor subscriptions.
Rask Core monthly membership is probably deductible too. I’m one of those who joined up awhile ago for a one off, not very much fee and got grandfathered as lifetime member. I did claim a tax deduction for this a few years ago. Bargain or what 😉?
Up1Hi,
Also enjoyed the Live shows (I did attend quite a few but under various aliases depending on which youtube account I was signed in with). Agree with JaneAusten007 that it’s great to have a sense of community. Also got ask questions…. that I mostly already knew the answer to, but its good to get confirmation.
I’d like to know what’s happened to various Rask Rockets stocks and what can be learned from the ones that didn’t do so well.
Up0And here’s a interesting video on the phenomenon of the Mrs Watanabe Forex traders. Explores how Japanese housewives learnt how to trade Forex markets because of the weak Yen….
Up0Hi,
Sorry, haven’t been on the forum much lately and must have missed the notify me email. I just posted a response to DG on Japan ETFs. Here are some resource links.
Japan ETFs –Intelligent Investor write-up (paid subs)Platinum Asset Management Insights. I used be an investor in the Platinum Japan fund so would read more frequently about the companies they invested in.
And lastly, my husband loves geopolitics youtubes. We watch Peter Zeihan quite a bit. He consults for governments, business and military and has also written several books.
